How is the Power Move flex base figure calculated?

Morning ​@Firedog, 

I’ve spoken with Ash this morning he’s taken the questions away to the team and i’ll update the thread with a response when we have one 😊

If you have any follow up questions or thoughts let me know and I can forward them on. 

Morning ​@Firedog,

Ash came back with an update:

"It's option 4. We look in the previous 60 days for the 10 most recent non-event days (for working days).

We use the P376 baseline methodology which is what was used for Demand Flexibility Service. You can find the NESO methodology documentation here (appendix 5, pages 38-39) - https://www.neso.energy/document/286981/download"

I hope this helps and if you have any questions reach out and i’ll find the answers! 

That’s great, thanks (and to Ashley)!

For anyone interested, so we have an answer to mark, these ares the relevant passages (very lightly edited):
  

If anyone can work out what the mean average of the 2 median days means, I’d be delighted to hear! My own guess is that, for example, if the last four eligible days were Saturday1, Sunday, Bank Holiday Monday and Saturday2, the baseline would be the average of usage on the Sunday and the Monday, being the two days in the middle.

The median is the middle value of a set of data.  Here I think it just probably means that you take the two middle days of the 4 and then work out the mean (what is usually understood by the average) of these two days.

I think !

I was cogitating over this last night, and it’s possible we’re both wrong. The usual reason for using the median of a set of values instead of the mean is to minimize the undue influence of outliers. When there are only four values involved, this influence on the mean could be very misleading. It would make sense, therefore, to take the median to find a ‘reasonable’ baseline. IOW, put the four values in order, then take the mean of the middle two. This would avoid, for example, a profligate family Sunday skewing the picture of ‘normal’ usage.

Here’s an example if anyone’s interested …
  

I follow what you’re saying and it probably makes more sense.

Hey ​@Firedog   - just want to say thanks for ‘translating’ all the info and explain how PMF baseline is actually  calculated.  (I still have to read what you’ve put at least twice (lol) but then I do get it!)  Brilliantly explained and worked through - thank you for taking the time to do it. 

My understanding of Power Move Flex base usage is that it looks at your average usage for specific time periods during the last 10 weekdays for weekday events.  In last winter’s trial, the days when there had been a previous PMF event were ignored in calculating the base usage.

For the last ten weekdays, I have had 2 days when I had “free hours” events and the 8 other days had PMF events.  If the frequency of PMF events continues, does this mean that my base usage will carry on being determined by the same 2 weeks at the start of July - neither of which, due to holidays, visitors, weather, were very typical ?

Well l am not sure some of the events l won’t be able to do as from Sunday back to work. and they say l have free time to use my electric but won’t be here so how does that help they say l can use it on Sunday l am not going to be here.

Hey ​@DuncanL,

Power Up and Power Down Events
 

3.2 Power Up and Power Down events are decided by the ESO rather than by OVO. We’ll let you know by email up to 48 hours before an event is due to take place. As the events are controlled by ESO we’re unable to confirm the number of events or the reward value of these events in advance. Please note that you’re automatically entered into every event as deemed appropriate by OVO and ESO, but you have a choice to not take part in it.  

3.3 If you successfully move your electricity use above or below your normal usage, as measured by our baseline methodology [see 3.4], as part of a Power Up or Power Down event then you may be rewarded with credit to your bill. Please see Section 5 for more details.

3.4 For Power Down and Power Up events, we calculate your baseline using ESO’s methodology:

For working days (Mon - Fri excluding bank holidays) – your baseline is calculated using the half hourly electricity usage data taken from your smart meter over the last 10 working days before an event. You’ll need to have at least 5 working days worth of data for a target to be calculated.

For non-working days (Saturday, Sunday & bank holidays) – your baseline is calculated using the half hourly electricity usage data taken from your smart meter over the last 4 non-working days. You’ll need to have at least 4 non-working days worth of data for a target to be calculated.
 

Want to find out more? You can head to our website for more information on Power Move Flex.
 

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