Why is my Future Annual Consumption estimate so persistently high?

I agree with all that Firedog says there,
Particularly that when a customer has been with OVO for over 12 months their actual consumption figures should be used for the FACs, not the (known and admitted to be too high) incorrect figures being supplied by Elexon/Xoserve.

My bigger beef is that having suddenly increased an FAC to a much inflated  incorrrect figure the Direct Debit calculator then uses that incorrect figure and OVO automatically increase the Direct Debit amount to more than it needs to be - With no easy way to prevent that happening, or to then get it corrected to what it should be.

As I say I am well aware that that is not the support agents fault - they only see the incorrect information that the computer shows them.
Then even if they accept your explantion/argument of why the DD has been set too high they are then constrained by the computer as to what action they can actually take to try and correct it.

It has become clear to me that these ongoing errors in the data and calculations are know about.
It's also become clear to me that no one is trying to fix them because: "Having frequent readings from a smart meter will correct them over time".

But of course not everyone has smart meters, and not everyone can provided regular manual readings.
(I was recently locked-out of my account for the best part of 2 months so couldn’t supply gas meter readings, which is probably what has resulted in my current gas FAC spike upwards.
Although the July tariff changes may have had a part to play in it by triggering a recalculation I’m on a fixed plan so my own rates haven’t changed).

Personally, as someone who is unable to work for health reasons, and so is on the bare subsistance level benefits that are paid, for me to pay more than I need to be paying each month becomes a hardship.
I could be spending that money on other needed essentials each month.

Quite. There’s no need for ‘industry’ or any other third party to be involved; it’s a matter between the licensee (the supplier) and the customer alone. OVO shouldn’t be sheltering behind third-parties’ faults, because in our cases it’s none of their business.

Of course OVO are bound to keep the industry informed of each customer’s details so that comparison sites and other suppliers can make sensible suggestions based on the same information. It’s wrong to be attributing failings in the FAC calculation to problems with submitting and retrieving data from the industry.

An electricity supplier is required to “take all reasonable steps to obtain a meter reading for each of its Customers at least once every year” (SLC 21B.4). I expect there’s a similar requirement in respect of gas customers. Those on the PSR can get more help with meter readings if they need it, presumably assessed on an individual basis.

Before OVO unilaterally increased my DD to match my once again incorrect gas FAC I decided to take action myself.

The FAC had come down a bit since the spike, but they were still asking for £148.

The online account was offering me a button to fix at 10% below their recommeneded DD amount for 3 months so I decided to see what it would do.

It did exactly what it said it would and came back with:

That’s not a reduction at all, it’s a £6 increase from the £128 that I was paying, better than a £20 increase though.
£134 is still too high, but I can live with it.
Plus it was much easier clicking a button than having the discussion, yet again, with a reluctant support agent.

Now to work on getting that inflated FAC down again so that it's at least more reasonable in 3 months time when they recalculate the DD.

This is all rather a chore in a busy world - something I guess many wouldn’t even look at but would certainly be unhappy with. I’d be interested what other suppliers have in this area. My own, don’t seem overly fussed with what level is set and being on a ‘smart tariff’ the normal suggestion route doesn’t work for me. 

@BPLightlog  From what I have found out over the months the issue of incorrect EACs (for electricity) and AQs (for gas) that are notified to the supplier is endemic, and can arise in various circumstances - a meter exchange being a common cause.

The problem is then how the supplier uses those figures provided (or not) to calculate their own FACs, and thus ‘required’ DD amount that arises as a result.

And then how strictly they adhere to what that calculated FAC says the required DD should be set at.

~~~

OVO currently appear to prefer using that (somtimes incorrect) Elexon/Xoserve provided EAC/AQ over the customers actual metered 12 month usage when it comes to calculating their FAC.
(Or possibly OVO prefer using whichever is higher?)

Then OVOs computer system currently treats that OVO calculated FAC as sacrosanct, whether it is correct or not, sets the minimum DD accordingly, and will then subsequently automatically increase a customers DD payment to suit.

You then have the problem of trying to persuade a support agent that it is wrong and should be changed, with the added problem that even when you do manage that the support agent is constrained by what the computer will (won't) allow them to change.

The classic “Computer says no” situation.

It's frustrating enough when you understand what is going on. It must be doubly frustrating if all you know is that your DD has rocketed up for no real reason that anyone can explain to you.

One more bizarre development in this ongoing saga: my FAC has been inexorably decreasing since the last time an expert looked at it back in April. It was neatly on course to meet the actual annual consumption figure on my meter’s first anniversary. Then, after having learned that another expert was investigating, the wretched number has suddenly taken a left turn towards the stratosphere:
  

If it stays on that sort of course, the twain will never meet. The system is broken.

Moral: if the boat is sinking, don’t rock it.

I think it’s time to wrap this up until it all goes wrong again.

A week ago, it was my meter’s first birthday 🎂. By any reckoning, my FAC should then match that year’s consumption, given that the system that calculates it refuses (illegally!) to take any notice of household consumption recorded earlier. 

The first year’s consumption (366 days because leap year) was 1018.377kWh. The FAC updated on Sunday to 1015.2 kWh, so we got there in the end and even overshot a bit. I’m hopeful that next Sunday’s figure will correspond to a meter reading sometime between now and then. I’ve not managed to pin down precisely when the reading is taken to use for the FAC, but the figure of 1015.2 is almost exactly what I would expect the reading to have been at noon GMT on Friday, so I’ll be keeping an eye out for similar behaviour in the future.

I hope that this welcome relief won’t deter the boffins in their efforts to have my EAC brought into line as it should be. I’ve yet to find a reliable and legal way of finding out how it’s faring. 

You mean that you don’t have faith in the FAC system? I wonder why not? 🤣

Good to hear that your own FAC seems to have finally settled back to where it should be.

My FAC for gas has also been behaving itself for the last couple of months.
It's stil higher that it should be, but that will be because my gas account had to be reset some months ago due to an incorrect meter serial number at Xoserve.
That was effectivly the same as a new meter install, so back to square one with 'industry standard' figures instead of actual readings.

Mine is creeping up slightly when I supply new meter readings, but very slightly, that will be due to winter gas usage replacing the 'industry standard' figures currently in my last FAC re- calculation.
PS. When my gas FAC changes due to a newly supplied reading it's often within minutes.

However the big test of whether mine is finally behaving itself will come later this month.
Looking back at the previous occasions when my gas FAC had shot up (even doubled, or trebled, overnight) I noticed that they had happened at or near to the end of my billing period following an Ofgem tariff/cap change.
(eg. The last spike, an overnight increase of 4,928 kWh, happened at my billing period end in July.ie the first one following an Ofgem rate change).
I'm fairly sure now that new 'industry standard' figures from Xoserve were/are calculated in at that point, which is what was causing the FAC to rocket up.
That's a few weeks off so we will see what happens this time.

And then I have another, actual, gas meter exchanged booked for November, which will reset my usage figures again - so start from scratch again.
(IF the exchange actually happens this time).
Hopefully having a new gas Smart Meter fitted will then mitigate things with my gas FAC, but if your experience with your electricity MEX is anything to go by then that may take another 12 months from the exchange.

It is good to know it is sorted and useful to know it has taken a year. That is useful when giving feedback to posters given the typical shorter time quoted by ovo when I use to regularly post. OVO always seemed optimistic during the SSE migration for example.

I don't now what timescales ovo typically quote these days?

Well, I wish you all the best with your gas MEX when it happens.

It’s unfortunate we have no way of checking what data ‘industry’ is keeping for us. Since things could go wrong (as we’ve both discovered) in the data flow from supplier via their data service provider to Elexon/Xoserve, we’re reliant on hard-to-find staff within OVO to detect faults and correct them. As we know, that won’t happen without the customer nagging about it. My EAC is probably still as far out as your AQ, but I won’t find out until I try to make a tariff comparison at one of the sites that uses the EAC for the purpose for which it was intended. Ho hum.