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Firedog
Super User
Super User
December 15, 2023
Solved

Price cap increases- To fix or not to fix?

  • December 15, 2023
  • 217 replies
  • 5947 views

Customers on variable tariffs (SVT) are being notified these days of tariff increases from 1 January. At the same time, many are being given the opportunity to switch to a fixed-rate tariff. I am trying to decide whether it would be a good idea to fix, but I’m not sure I have all the information I need. Gas hasn’t been invented yet in my corner of the world, so I’m only interested in electricity tariffs.

Cornwall Insight are a well respected crystal-ball gazer where energy prices are concerned. Their predictions for 2024 show small ups and downs in unit prices, but one startling forecast is for a hike in the standing charge of the order of 15% on 1 April. For a light user like me, this is hugely significant. On SVT, the standing charge would amount to 37% of my bill in January, but by October this would have risen to more than 41%. The fixed rates I’m being offered would keep the standing charge at more or less the current level, so that makes fixing look like a good idea. 

But … we know that Ofgem are considering changes to the way standing charges are calculated and applied. If by some miracle any change were to be implemented before 1 October next, would I miss out on any benefit this might bring? I guess the answer to that is Yes, but that it’s not very likely any change will happen by then. Agree?

And does anyone know the reason for the increase in standing charges predicted for 1 April next? Are we going to be paying for the cost of bailing out Bulb customers?

 

Best answer by BPLightlog

Updated on 29/08/25 by Ben_OVO

The Energy Price Cap, set by Ofgem, is normally changed on 01/01, 01/04, 01/07 and 01/10 each year. The price cap can go up or down and, if you’re on the standard variable tariff (Simpler Energy) then your rates will go up or down to match the price cap change. We offer fixed tariffs for one or two years. If you opt in for a fixed tariff then your rates will be fixed, and protected from price cap changes. If you’re up for renewal, or are currently on the Simpler Energy plan, you can switch to a fixed tariff via your online account or app (see below).

 

 

I’ve been asked about the question ‘to fix or not to fix’ often in the last few months and I always offer the same answer .. how comfortable are you with the possibility that prices might increase over the next year?

There are no two ways about it .. it is a gamble. I liken it to taking out insurance (the optional sort) where it’s a calculation as to the possibility of an expense for a loss/damage compared to - for the most part - having financial cover for those things.

Back in 2021 we fixed our energy rate for 2 years and almost everybody told me that it was at too high a level. Little did I (or anybody else) know about the pending war in Ukraine and the problems with supply from the Russian pipeline.

This time, despite the outlook, we have not fixed .. although, in effect, our tariff is a constant variable if that makes any sense. All of that is why I’ve invested in solar PV, battery storage, a Ripple community solar park and a small wind generator, so that we have a degree of self/low generation support whatever happens

217 replies

Firedog
Super User
FiredogSuper UserAuthor
Super User
June 5, 2026

Morning, ​@Ben_OVO 👋 and thanks! 

Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
Rank 5
June 25, 2026

Quick question regarding the Price Cap (As set by OFCOM).
OVO state that the price rises are ‘Industry Wide’, which is fair enough, but, my question is, when OFCOM set the price caps, do energy companies HAVE to increase their unit prices and standing charges, or are they just doing it to make the most money from customers?

I mean, okay, OFCOM have allowed energy companies to raise their prices in July, but do they all HAVE to.
For instance, could OVO KEEP their current prices as they are now, to reward existing customers and attract new ones by having the cheapest fuel prices?

If so, it just seems like pure greed for every energy supplier to raise their prices, just because they can!

Firedog
Super User
FiredogSuper UserAuthor
Super User
June 25, 2026

… the Price Cap (As set by OFCOM).
    

  OFCOM do communications - TV, radio, telephone and broadband, for example. The energy market regulator is Ofgem: GEM is ‘gas and electricity markets’.  
  

… do energy companies HAVE to increase their unit prices and standing charges, or are they just doing it to make the most money from customers? … it just seems like pure greed for every energy supplier to raise their prices, just because they can!
  

Ofgem don’t just set the price-cap, they determine pretty much just how much ‘profit’ the energy suppliers can make from the majority of their customers - those on Standard Variable Tariffs, the ones governed by the price cap. Before any interest or taxes have been paid, a supplier is allowed £43 per customer per year over and above costs. That doesn’t strike me as greedy.

Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
Rank 5
June 25, 2026

Sorry, yes, OFGEM.

It might not seem ‘greedy’ to those who can comfortably afford it, but even a small rise in the standing charges and unit rates has a big effect on the monthly bills for those on low income, or unemployed for whatever reasons.

And, like I mentioned, Energy Companies make more money the more customers they supply and have signed up to them. Cheaper rates makes them more attractive and means more people will switch.

Peter E
Super User
Super User
June 25, 2026

In addition Cornwall Insight are in the game of forecasting future CAPs here:

 

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press-releases/cornwall-insight-release-final-july-price-cap-forecast-2/

 

Ofgem look a prices on the Futures market to determine what the level of the CAP should be to give the suppliers a readonable working margin. Suppliers can then play around with a combination of the Unit Rates and the Standing Charge to make themselves look attractive to different sections of the community. But, in total, their prices must not exceed the CAP for the user who is defined as average. Being careful not to use the term average user which might draw the wrath of ​@Firedog who would rightfully tick me off for saying no customer is average. It's too hot for being ticked off.

 

Suppliers can offer prices below the CAP. Bulb did that and went bust because they didn't buy enough contracts for their customers on the Futures market so when the prices went up in the post Covid energy crisis they couldn't afford to buy the energy. Tomato did that for EV users more recently and went bust possibly because they didn't ask enough to run an effective administration process and Ofgem shut them down when they failed their customers. You're damned (by comment) if you run at the CAP or dammed (by collapse) if you undercut it by too much.

 

Peter 

Reducing my yearly fossil fuel usage with an EV (-900 litres petrol), A2AHP (-8,700 kWh gas) and Timed Immersion heater (-1,500 kWh gas)
Firedog
Super User
FiredogSuper UserAuthor
Super User
June 25, 2026

  

Being careful not to use the term average user which might draw the wrath of ​@Firedog who would rightfully tick me off for saying no customer is average.
    ​

Ofgem don’t use the term ‘average’ about household consumption for a good reason. Almost every household uses some energy, but a few very high users push the average up to unhelpful levels. They use the median instead - the level that 50% of households use less than. This they call ‘typical’ consumption. Their thinking is clearly laid out in §2.9 and 2.10 here: Review of typical domestic consumption values: decision

I don’t do wrath, but clarification is always good, regardless of the weather 😉

Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
Rank 12
June 26, 2026

Sorry, yes, OFGEM.

It might not seem ‘greedy’ to those who can comfortably afford it, but even a small rise in the standing charges and unit rates has a big effect on the monthly bills for those on low income, or unemployed for whatever reasons.

And, like I mentioned, Energy Companies make more money the more customers they supply and have signed up to them. Cheaper rates makes them more attractive and means more people will switch.

Energy companies only obligation as regards the Ofgem “Price cap” is that they are told, for each of the regions, the MAXIMUM that they can charge for unit rates for each fuel and the MAXIMUM that they can charge for standing charges for each fuel. Those of us who have been OVO customers for some time may remember, some years back, when OVO did not raise their standing charges for a considerable length of time (I think it was, at least, 6 months). I do have the data on one of my machines, but could not put my mouse on it immediately. However, the costs of keeping us all supplied do go up - by this I mean the running costs of companies. Increasing wages (and there is nothing wrong with doing this), increased National Insurance costs for employers (I can wax lyrical about this for hours), increased costs of basic things like meters and In Home Devices and the cost of getting them to where they need to be, network charges that allow energy companies to distribute the energy they buy, the cost of the government mandated Warm Home Discount, etc. all need to be paid for. 

Companies have to strike a balance between charges and viability. When companies fail, the knock on effects are felt by us all.