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Firedog
Super User
Super User
December 15, 2023
Solved

Price cap increases- To fix or not to fix?

  • December 15, 2023
  • 217 replies
  • 5947 views

Customers on variable tariffs (SVT) are being notified these days of tariff increases from 1 January. At the same time, many are being given the opportunity to switch to a fixed-rate tariff. I am trying to decide whether it would be a good idea to fix, but I’m not sure I have all the information I need. Gas hasn’t been invented yet in my corner of the world, so I’m only interested in electricity tariffs.

Cornwall Insight are a well respected crystal-ball gazer where energy prices are concerned. Their predictions for 2024 show small ups and downs in unit prices, but one startling forecast is for a hike in the standing charge of the order of 15% on 1 April. For a light user like me, this is hugely significant. On SVT, the standing charge would amount to 37% of my bill in January, but by October this would have risen to more than 41%. The fixed rates I’m being offered would keep the standing charge at more or less the current level, so that makes fixing look like a good idea. 

But … we know that Ofgem are considering changes to the way standing charges are calculated and applied. If by some miracle any change were to be implemented before 1 October next, would I miss out on any benefit this might bring? I guess the answer to that is Yes, but that it’s not very likely any change will happen by then. Agree?

And does anyone know the reason for the increase in standing charges predicted for 1 April next? Are we going to be paying for the cost of bailing out Bulb customers?

 

Best answer by BPLightlog

Updated on 29/08/25 by Ben_OVO

The Energy Price Cap, set by Ofgem, is normally changed on 01/01, 01/04, 01/07 and 01/10 each year. The price cap can go up or down and, if you’re on the standard variable tariff (Simpler Energy) then your rates will go up or down to match the price cap change. We offer fixed tariffs for one or two years. If you opt in for a fixed tariff then your rates will be fixed, and protected from price cap changes. If you’re up for renewal, or are currently on the Simpler Energy plan, you can switch to a fixed tariff via your online account or app (see below).

 

 

I’ve been asked about the question ‘to fix or not to fix’ often in the last few months and I always offer the same answer .. how comfortable are you with the possibility that prices might increase over the next year?

There are no two ways about it .. it is a gamble. I liken it to taking out insurance (the optional sort) where it’s a calculation as to the possibility of an expense for a loss/damage compared to - for the most part - having financial cover for those things.

Back in 2021 we fixed our energy rate for 2 years and almost everybody told me that it was at too high a level. Little did I (or anybody else) know about the pending war in Ukraine and the problems with supply from the Russian pipeline.

This time, despite the outlook, we have not fixed .. although, in effect, our tariff is a constant variable if that makes any sense. All of that is why I’ve invested in solar PV, battery storage, a Ripple community solar park and a small wind generator, so that we have a degree of self/low generation support whatever happens

217 replies

Firedog
Super User
FiredogSuper UserAuthor
Super User
May 27, 2025

Amusing quirk of fixed prices

In May last year, I grasped the nettle and fixed my tariff for a year on the Loyalty plan. The main instigator was the lower standing charge, which weighs heavily in my bills. Then, earlier this year, I spotted some favourable rates just ahead of the 1 April increase in the price cap, and decided to switch to the Extended Fixed plan (27/02/2025), still hoping to avoid a significant rise in standing charges later this year. 

Last week, I remembered the anniversary of last year’s fix, so I thought of comparing what I used to have with what I now have. This was the result:
  

The bottom two are just for smugness 🙂

  
By sheer accident, the annual cost on my current plan is to a penny the same as it would be on the plan I started a year ago and abandoned in March this year. It’s still £33 cheaper than the standard variable tariff, and £14 less than the latest extended fix.

Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
Nukecad
Super User
Super User
May 27, 2025

I've just been taking a look today myself, my current 1-year Fixed Loyalty ends on Aug 27th so 3-months off.

I'm dual fuel which adds an extra dimension.

On my phone at the moment so can't add a shot of my comparison spreadsheet yet, but if I ‘Tariff hopped’ now: 
The latest 1-year Fixed Loyalty (22-05-2025) for the next 12 months would save me £36,69 (I think I remembered the pence right) a year over my curent fix.

The 1-year Fixed is similar - in fact it's only 14 pence a year more than the ‘Loyalty’

The ‘Extended’ (15 month) and ‘2-year’ are also both cheaper than my current, but not by as much as the 1-year fixes.

For now I'll just keep an eye on them, but may ‘hop’ next month to get my fix start/end aligned with my monthly billing period.

I said, Hey - Watts going on.
Newcomer
March 29, 2026

Hi all, 

Hope everyone is well. 

My contract is up for renewal and I am not sure which tariff to pick. 

OVO just released their new fixed tarrifs very recently but they are pricey, estimated usage over £2K and above for the year. 

The variable one at the moment is cheaper.

Given the current situation around the world, which is the best option to pick? 

Has anyone else seen and or in the same situation? 

Thank you 

Nukecad
Super User
Super User
March 29, 2026

Keep your eyes on the fixed tariffs on offer they change all the time, and should be cheaper after April 1st.

How long is left on your current one? You are aware that the rates for both fuels wiil go down on April 1st, even existing ‘fixed’ rates will go down.

To answer the other question, when prices went daft last time I went to Standard Variable until the offered fixes got reasonable again.

(I've got till August on my current fix so am looking forward to the April rate reductions and will worry about the predicted July increases as and when I'm closer to renewing).

I said, Hey - Watts going on.
Newcomer
March 29, 2026

This April I will need to renew.

Wasn't aware they are going down, I thought everything is going up due to the war.

Just recieved a letter from them, saying they have just introduced new fixed tariffs. When they only just released they won't be due to war etc. 

Thank you for the insight, so the best thing to do is wait till April hits and go from there? 

Will you exit and renew also? 

 

 

 

 

Firedog
Super User
FiredogSuper UserAuthor
Super User
March 30, 2026

The fixed rates currently (29 March) on offer are pretty eye-watering, but it rather depends on how much you value certainty about your price for the next year or two. I don’t know whether the rates you have been offered include the reduction due on 1 April or not, but that should be clear from the letter you got. If they don’t, you should be able to deduct 3.34 p/kWh from the unit rate for electricity and 0.31 p/kWh from the rate for gas.

When I looked just now, the one-year and two-year rates were almost exactly the same; the only difference was in the standing charge for electricity, 0.02 p/day more for the two-year fix - that’s less than 7½ p a year! - and, of course, the higher exit fees (1-year £50, 2-year £95 for each fuel), so any deal you found during the fixed term would have to be quite a bit cheaper for it to be worth switching. 

The Simpler Energy quote you may have received may be the one for April-June, but it’s widely expected to be a lot higher after that because of the global increase in energy prices (oil started trading this morning (30 March) at the same dizzy heights as it has the last two Mondays, over $116/bbl). What the situation will be after 1 October this year is anybody’s guess.  

Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
Nukecad
Super User
Super User
March 30, 2026

Remember that the 01-01-2026 Standard Variable rate you see now will also be going down on 1st April.

In your situation I would wait at least a few days until 1st/2nd/3rd April to let the April changes take place, and then look at the fixed rates being offered compared to the Standard Variable after the changes.

As Firedog says the current fixes on offer do seem high.
(I’m also guessing though that if you did take one today it would go down on 1st April like all other current fixed rates will do).

I had noticed this week that OVO put a new set of fixed rates out on 26th March, and then changed them to a new slightly higher set on 27th March.
It just shows how fluid things are at the moment when the fixed rates on offer change daily like that.

 

I said, Hey - Watts going on.
Newcomer
March 30, 2026

Yea the current rates are way hight than the one I am on

So its best to wait?

Firedog
Super User
FiredogSuper UserAuthor
Super User
March 30, 2026

Reposting: “… it rather depends on how much you value certainty about your price for the next year or two.” No-one knows what will happen from 1 July - even British Gas have stopped guessing. With our glass half empty, we just assume that variable tariff prices will increase dramatically.

Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
Newcomer
April 2, 2026

You guys seen the new fixed plans they have just released? Its not amazing but better…

Would you recommend getting on one of them now?