Why has OVO exaggerated my projected usage estimates after I got a new meter?

Sorry that you’re still having issues with your recommended Direct Debit amount, @martinkressman. As this is related to the original projected usage issue, I have merged these threads together to provide some context to others finding the thread in future.

Our community volunteer and fellow OVO member, @Blastoise186 has given some really sound advice - 

Unfortunately we’re unable to take actions on your account directly here, but if you’re still getting inaccurate direct debit suggestions, it would be best to contact our Support Team who can place your Direct Debit on a temporary hold if needed. If you are not happy with this solution a complaint can be raised which will be fully investigated by our Complaints team. They will be best placed to access your account history and come to a resolution you are happy with. 

Blastoise is right.  Direct Debit payments can also be manually adjusted by the Support Team on request if needed.  However, in my case the Support Team would not engage with me until today (1 June) since 13 April.

Even then it took more than 1 hour on the phone to get the issue resolved.

Hopefully, nothing else will go wrong.

On 10/6/21 I finally received the manual calculation from OVO Energy that I requested on 14/5/21. They have now reopened the complaint and are going to go through the recalculation procedure all over again. Thus the can is kicked yet further down the road. Who knows how long this is going to go on for?

When a Direct Debit check-in was carried out in April this year, my account was £933 in credit and my Direct Debit was £210/mth. My consumption over the previous twelve months was 16555 kWh. With this level of consumption and credit my Direct Debit was more than sufficient to satisfy the needs of my account. The check-in stated that I would use 22975 kWh and demanded £279/mth Direct Debit amount. This was later reduced to 21535 kWh and £238/mth.

I have been in disagreement with OVO ever since. On 10/6/21 OVO issued an ‘8 week’ letter to enable me to take my case to the Ombudsman.

How can OVO get things so horrendously wrong? We are in the middle of a pandemic. I do not need OVO making things worse.

Hi,

Yup. OVO does indeed factor in your account balance when the algorithm performs the number crunching. I know this because it keeps trying to force my own payments right down to almost the lowest possible amount because of my circumstances. My account balance right now is almost enough to surf my way through the rest of my current contract, but I override the system and leave it as is because I prefer to build up a buffer.

It goes without saying that regardless of the calculations and estimates, you will never actually pay for any energy you don't use. The rest remains on your account to be carried over to the next billing cycle and you can always request a refund if needed. You only need to keep at least one month worth of credit at a minimum, but I don't recommend letting it get that low as it may affect your account standing later.

As you have chosen to escalate to the Energy Ombudsman, I'm afraid that we won't be able to assist you further with this issue until after the Ombudsman has decided on the outcome. I don't like to interfere with that process and I'm afraid it wouldn't be appropriate to jump in and get in the way. 

I, like you, keep my account in an extremely healthy state and put my bonus payments into my account. However, on OVO Energy’s admission, the algorithm has a bug in it as a result of a meter change in November last year. They say that there is no timescale for it to be fixed. The system, therefore, keeps churning out rubbish which it will not let me alter and issuing all kinds of financial penalties.

Certainly, I will never actually pay for any energy I don't use, but because the system is taking more out of my account than it should be (£238/mth instead of £210), my bank account is haemorrhaging money whilst my OVO account is rising to an to unnecessarily high amount of credit.

I do not want a refund. I want to reduce my monthly payments.

I do not intend to involve the Ombudsman at this stage.

I’ve spent some time today attempting to number crunch this manually, but you didn’t mention that you have Economy 7 or what your total Day and Night usage was over the last year. Without this information, I’m afraid I’m unable to punch in more accurate figures into the tools I use and can only go off of a basic single rate tariff. All information in this reply is based on a Unit Rate of 16.83p/kWh Ex. VAT and a Daily Standing Charge of 22.03p/kWh Ex. VAT on the Better Energy tariff that I am currently on, as available when I signed up in September 2020. These figures may vary depending on circumstances. I have not factored in VAT, OVO Beyond, OVO Foundation Donations or anything else beyond the raw rates as stated.

Based on your actual figures of 16,555kWh last year, I make that an average of about 45kWh/Day (rounded down slightly to simplify this breakdown). That works out at an average 1,380kWh/Month, rounded up to the nearest whole number. This also works out as being about an average 1.38mWh/Month. That works out at £2,786.20 a year prior to the Standing Charges which would be another £80.41 for the year. Combined together, I calculate a total of £2,866.61 Ex. VAT for that period. Divide that by 12 and I get £238.88 per month Ex. VAT, but generally this would be rounded up to more like £240 for ease of reference. The VAT on that at a 5% rate works out as being £143.33 for the year making a grand total of £3,009.94 Inc. VAT. That’s also £11.94 a month in VAT which makes for £250.82 a month total Inc. VAT.

However, this is before you factor in any discounts or the split from Economy 7. I cannot calculate these for you as I don’t have the information available. I would suspect your payments were probably about right last year but I cannot guarantee that. 

Having reviewed the information I could gather from you for this year, I calculate that OVO’s algorithms had initially made an additional average allowance of an extra 16kWh/Day on top of your previous figures (making for a “budget” of 62kWh/Day) and 13kWh/Day (making for a “budget” of 59kWh/Day) after the recalculation. This makes sense because your usage is pretty high anyway and what OVO has attempted to do is to give you some leeway in the estimates in order to allow for any fluctuations without affecting your bill. If you still end up only using an average of 45kWh/Day anyway, you will only be billed for the average 45kWh/Day.

Regardless of this, my calculations indicate that a £1,000 balance alone will only get you through 1/3 of the year. In my personal view, it appears that the system is trying to build up a buffer of spare credit over the summer period when your usage is lower to help counteract the winter period and keep your account on track. This is completely normal.

The easiest way to reduce your projected estimates and your bills, is to basically reduce your overall energy usage. Storage Heaters are some of the biggest energy guzzlers out there and are rarely the most cost effective option available. It may be worth considering whether you can upgrade to something more efficient.

It is common for energy suppliers to err on the side of caution and to bias the calculations to be slightly higher than reality in order to allow for various factors, fluctuations and changes in your usage patterns. There are a lot of factors that the system will use when calculating the projections and your current account balance at the time along with your projected account balance are just two of the factors which get fed into the algorithms. No energy supplier worth their salt would fail to factor this stuff in.

If you suspect your meter to be faulty, then a Meter Accuracy Test is an option. If the algorithms OVO uses really are misbehaving, I can assure you that there’s a very, very good chance I would notice that and bug report it almost immediately. To date, I have not needed to do so.

Figures are:  Between 13/5/21 and 13/5/21

Daytime 1676 kWh/annum

Nighttime 9979 kWh/annum

VAT inclusive tariff:

Day 19.78 p/kWh

Night 11.76 p/kWh

Standing Charge 20.75 p/day

Balance at 13/5/21 £922.71

Please do the calculations now.

It seems that 5,000kWh remains unaccounted for and I'm unable to get an accurate figure. Please review your comments in this thread and double check the figures provided.

In addition, are you absolutely sure you used 11mWh in a single day? That's an impossibly high amount that goes far beyond the combined daily usage of the entire block of flats that I live in. 

Even without that, I'm still getting £1,315 total. Assigning the missing 5,000kWh to your Night Rate adds a further £588 making £1,903 but even with this, it doesn't match up to your reported £210 a month payments as it averages out at £158. It's only when I assign the 5,000kWh to your Day rate instead that I actually get more reasonable figures. With that, I get £2,304 a year which averages £192 a month. The additional £20 a month on top makes sense as a safety net.

Maybe you are perhaps using more energy than you expected?

My only other two theories that I can make are that either your old meter was faulty and clocking too slowly, or that you may not have considered the true cost of having storage heaters and you might not be using them properly. They are among the most expensive possible heating systems to run. Economy 7 isn't going to be around forever either, so you should consider that factor as well.

I do apologise for this, but I can't help you out if you don't provide the correct information.