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mogstermc
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October 3, 2026

Underlying issue with Annual Consumption Figures & Direct Debit

  • October 3, 2026
  • 4 replies
  • 30 views

This has been a bone of contention on my account for at least 2 years, so I know that it’s not an issue caused by using EAC figures rather than accumlated data from my actual Smart Meters. I feel like this is one that needs a wider dicussion across the customer base. Unfortunately this ongoing issue has been the main reason I have now left OVO this week. But in a nut shell, it appears that OVO is over estimating customer’s annual usage and their support team don’t alway seem to be able to accertain why (nor do anything about it to stem excess DD amounts).

Over the last 2 years I have consistently been building credit, to the extent I have been lowering my DD at suggested figure on the DD screen at every opportunity. (Credit was even accumlating at the rate, that about every 4/5 days if I went onto the Direct Debit Screen it showed I could lower it by a few pounds).

However, it got to the point that the accumlated funds were 10x the monthly direct debit and I’d never had a single month in 4 years where my bill for the month was higher than the DD. The final straw for me when I had an e-mail to say that they were going to increase my direct debit by just under 2.5x what it was. When I rung them, I got the normal spiel about it being set so it’s one month in credit for the following March.

SO…. I did an excercise and calculated on my fixed term, and for when it ended the variable rate that it would move to, taking the maximum monthly electricity and gas figure I’d had since I’d been with OVO, and using that to work out exactly how much it would be if I used the same amount of electricity and gas every month, at the highest month in my whole history… And it came in as much lower. (about 2/5ths per month of the direct debit they were asking for - so I would have been accumulating a huge amount of credit).

I spoke to them on the phone in length, again had the same spiel, and they agreed to freeze my direct debit at 10% less than they suggested for three months, and recommended I claim a refund if it is accumlating again at the end of those three months.

… Which I did… And as soon as I did that refund, the next week, I got an e-mail to say my direct debit was going to be raised even higher again.

… So I spoke in length to a very helpful agent, and we went through all of the individual figures I’d previously worked out to try an understand why my direct debit was what it was. And this was where the penny dropped for the agent, becuase in her words “I don’t understand why you’re paying this much with your history of usage over the last 4 years”… And she worked out that the “projected annual usuage” for my account with electrity was wildly out (and the gas was a little high, but not enough to be concerned about). So much so, my account was projected my annual electricty usage as 3x the units that I’d ever used in a single year since I lived in my property. She was quite clear there was a problem with the way the system was generating my predicted usage and explained all my issues over predicted monthly cost and direct debit actually stemmed from this issue. So she escallated it to their technical team, becuase it appeared to be a foundational issue with this calculation and she admitted was not providing a correct figure. I was confident that she had a full understanding of the issue, managed to get to grip with all of the figures we’d talked to and she’d got to the crux of the problem in passing it over to be fixed… So I was to be called in the next 2/3 weeks with a resolve but until then a note was put on my account to prohibit any direct debit rises for the next three months as a safeguard.

… All this was 10 months ago, I never got that call. I have since rang 4 times since for an update. The first time had to explain it all again and go through all the figures as I was told all the same spiel again, despite having a log number for the escallation… and that it would be raised as a new complaint. The second time I was told the complaint was showing as resolved (but hadn’t been) so they would need to raise it again. The thrid time, I rang becuase my direct debit had been once again - and was told the escallation would be chased. Again never receiving the promised call back. And then the forth time, which was 2 months ago, I was told the original complaint hadn’t been raised as the “correct type of issue”; after having to go through the entire set of figures and conversation again, I was told it “had now been escallated in the right way,” to the right teams and someone would call me in the next 4 week to update me on how they were resolving the problem with this system issue generating too high annual usage for me.

…. Needless to say that call never came and my last fixed term came to an end. (With my account being roughly 8x in credit of my monthlt direct debit). I can only believe that this change to their ‘March’ calculation and this over inflated calculation of energy usage which is higher than the energy I’ve ever used, is somehow deliberately built into the system for them to profit over the excess credit they have from their customers. I no longer trust their integrity and have now moved to another supplier that just takes a DD out for the exact amount of bill for that last month - so I know I’m paying for exactly what I’ve used and they aren’t skimming over any credit they have swimming in their accounts.

I encourage everyone who had a direct debit to do the same. Have your unit rate and standing charges, work out what the most you’ve used in a year is and see using that volume of units if it’s anywhere near what they think you’ll be using… If it’s not, it appears that they are doing it to everyone else too and haven’t made any changes to their system to recitify this (deliberately or otherwise).
 

4 replies

Nukecad
Super User
NukecadSuper User
Super User
October 4, 2026

I had a similarly inflated FAC for gas at a couple of years ago, at one point it was 3x my actual annual use.
(At the time it was a non-communicating SMETS1 meter so I had to send in readings, it has since been replaced by a SMETS2 meter which communicates by itself).

I had the forum support team looking into the problem and  it wasn't OVO who were inflating the FAC, OVO get the FAC figures from Kaluza.

In turn Kaluza get the FAC figures from the central bodies that administer industry codes and settlement balances, those are Elexon for electricity and Xoserve for gas.

The inflated FAC for my gas was originating at Xoserve.
Two companies away from OVO, and of course OVO do not have any control over them.

We never actually managed to find a reason why Xoserve were inflating the figure.

I did however manage to reduce it myself over time - simply by sending in daily gas meter readings, basically imitating what a smart meter does.
Yes a bit of a PITA, but it soon became routine and my gas FAC started to reduce to what it should be.
It wasn't a steady reduction, some days it wouldn't change, other days it would rocket down.

Now that I’ve had a communicating SMETS2 gas meter for over a year the FAC for gas is about where it should be. (Or rather was, because last month I switched away from OVO for other reasons).

I said, Hey - Watts going on.
    Rank 1
    mogstermcAuthor
    Rank 1
    October 4, 2026

    Thanks to adding to this with an additional experience. Sadly in my case, we’d confirmed that the information from both Smart meters were fully being received by OVO and in latter half of that time had been already upgraded to SMETS2.

    I am not sure over the period of time this was unfortunately happening to you, but in my case seems unfortunate that over nearly a year in my case that being aware of issues around this (conscious they are two different reasons you and my case), that they don’t seem to be able to come back to have a resolution for this, or even come back at all over four escalations and not one single promised phone call back.

     

    I’m interested if there are others too in the group, who after highlighting an issues such as this (for what ever reason it’s causing it), where OVO support team have been aware of an over inflated DD, causing too much credit to accrue and have managed to proactively fix the issue, as well as promise to come back on promised phone called to escalation teams.

     

    My additional concern is that there appears to be an issue not only with OVO’s escalation processes and call back procedures around this, but also an actively un-proactive approach when it is something to do with them having the benefit of excess credit being accrued by them. Wider forums on Reddit I have researched over the last 24hours are alight with hundreds of people experiencing the same problems (and lack of urgency in calling back on this escalation). So it is beginning to appear as not one off sporadic incidents but indicative of a more systemic failure. 
     

    (which appears evident having been with a different supplier previously and now since, where none of this type issue is happening at all with them)

    Firedog
    Super User
    FiredogSuper User
    Super User
    October 4, 2026

    ​@mogstermc What a saga! I really feel for you. BTDT, as they say. A few comments:
      

    … we’d confirmed that the information from both Smart meters were fully being received by OVO and in latter half of that time had been already upgraded to SMETS2.

    This may explain why the problem remained so intractable. When my own meter was upgraded from SMETS1 to SMETS2 three years ago, I noticed a wildly inaccurate Future Annual Consumption (FAC) estimate on my Plan page (on the web, not in the app). I learnt that having a new meter installed effectively removes the usage history as far as estimating the FAC is concerned. We started with something like the Ofgem Typical Domestic Consumption Value (TDCV) and I watched the FAC fall over the next year until it ended up matching the previous 12 months’ usage on the meter’s first birthday. 

    It shouldn’t take that long, of course, because the infamous ‘industry’ figure, Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC), is supposed to be adjusted each time there is a meter reading. This was clearly not happening in my case, and probably yours, too. 

     

    Now, more recently a different problem arose. I have my suspicions as to why, but no explanation has been forthcoming. The ‘projection service’ (an internal automated system that is supposed to calculate the FAC) was in the habit of polling my meter for its readings once a week, but suddenly stopped being able to in June this year. I never understood why it should need to do this since my meter was happily supplying daily readings anyway, but there must have been a reason. Anyway, this meant that my FAC reverted to the industry EAC. This state lasted for 7 or 8 weeks, at which point the projection service started using the daily readings my meter was submitting anyway. That’s where we are today, with the FAC updating daily to match the annual advance of my meter to the nearest Wh (today’s annual advance = difference between today’s reading and the one from 365 days ago).

     

    So, you’re not entirely alone. However, the way you’ve apparently been treated is abysmal. Old OVO Support hands frequenting these forums often don’t wait long before recommending entering a formal complaint. Once that’s done, the clock starts ticking, and if the problem hasn’t been solved eight weeks later, the victim can ask the Energy Ombudsman (EO) to get involved. This isn’t cheap for the supplier, so just the threat of an EO referral can help concentrate the minds of those dragging their heels.

    I think, though, that there’s no hidden agenda here. It’s very unlikely that the DDs of some or all customers are being inflated in order to improve the supplier’s cash flow. 

     

    Thanks for this cautionary tale. It may entice other victims of a flaky projection service out of the woodwork so their problems can be dealt with properly. 

    Noel | I have no official status; I'm just a volunteer who comes here to help other customers. My gear: Aclara SGM 1416-B Electricity-only E7 meter; Chameleon IHD3-PPMID-AAA | It may look as if I know what I’m talking about, but don’t let that fool you. |
    Rank 1
    mogstermcAuthor
    Rank 1
    October 4, 2026

    Thanks ​@Firedog for the additional information. I had taken interest in some of your previous posts which were really informative. Annoyingly in my situation, I had a long history over both the old and new meters and the issue appeared to be happening in identical fashion (apart from a small blip in the month of the change over)

     

    Why I wanted to open this up to other experiences and causes of the problem, including yours, not only to widen the conversation of its effect but also challenge OVO to make more systemic changes to their process around this. (no customer should have credit 10x their monthly DD and still have their monthly amount pushed up.)

    Be it something that is being depriorised/blind eye is being turned to or it is happening more knowingly, OVO are still financially benefiting from a poor system at the cost of consumers and it’s feels like the the sort of thing that is affecting real people’s finances more so compared to other forms in the current climate (which I don’t want to be suspicious, but does make me cautious with OVO’s liquidity issues at the moment, but that’s an unhelpful aside in something I want to keep to experienced of the issue!)

     

    It feels like some high level action needs to be made be it thought a wider review of processed or a manual intervention put in place. Especially given many other of OVO’s peers don’t have this issue. (I wish my experience was a one off, but when I read of the hundreds of others who had failed call backs over similar DD issues, it started to lean away from coincidence and more to an unwillingness to address this issue proactively).

     

    What was disappointing was that all of my complaints went through the formal process, but I just don’t believe anymore OVO have the ability to deal with these complaints effectively, proactively or to conclusion, nor a willingness to look at it at a more strategic level. Which prompted my decision to move providers. The relief of not having to get back in contact with them every couple of months over a 2 year, as well as comfort of just now paying for what I use automatically at no extra cost (and lower unit and standing charge rates) was palpable!

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    OVO Energy Ltd, Floor 5, Crescent, Temple Back, Redcliffe, BS1 6EZ, (Company no. 06890795) registered in England and Wales.

    OVO (S) Gas Limited is registered in England and Wales (Company No. 02716495) at Floor 5, Crescent, Temple Back, Redcliffe, BS1 6EZ.

    OVO (S) Gas Limited is part of OVO Group Ltd