Price cap increases- To fix or not to fix?

Getting responses from general users might take you a while. I’ll summon some of the other Forum Volunteers as they might be around. Other than the fact we get access to extra knowledge behind the scenes at OVO, we’re just regular customers. Please bear with me - they might not respond immediately.

@BPLightlog @Firedog @Nukecad @Jeffus @Peter E @BeePee have you got a second?

I’ve also pinged a few users on the other side to see if they’re willing to stop by.

I'm fixed until late December (1-year Fixed Loyalty Plan) but am keeping an eye on things and may ‘tariff hop’ to a new 1-year fix before then, possibly before any October rise.

In the end various things have to be considered and whether you fix or not is always a bit of a gamble, you might win you might lose - but sometimes it's less of a risk than others, depending on what fixes are being offered - and that you have to weigh up for yourself in your own circumstances.

Just fixed for one year. I compared my original variable tariff with the one year fixed loyalty , the fixed loyalty actually came out £6 cheaper over the year (£1322 to £1316), This is mainly because the standing charge is slightly less, but the unit rates slightly more. Given that a10% increase is occurring in October a sensible choice.

I was however amused by some of the wording which suggested that the figures appearing in my sign-up e-mail may not be the same as the figures quoted when signing up! They do match.

I fixed back in May at rates which have so far saved me a bit over the SVT. The saving will get quite a bit bigger in October. I was a bit miffed to see that the 1-year Loyalty fix released last week is a bit cheaper, but the difference would amount to less than 10p a week, so I can’t be bothered to change.
  

You’re not referring to the passage that says “Your unit rates and standing charges might show differently on your statements,” are you? That’s always included to point out that rates on bills are shown ex VAT, with the VAT added lower down. Rates in quotes and confirmation emails and on TILs are always inclusive of VAT, but rates on the tariffs page are given ex VAT just to be awkward.  

Given that Q3 2024 and Q1 2025 are shown as increases by Cornwall Insight fixing is probably a good idea but there isn't much in it unlike before the surge in energy prices where there was an appreciable advantage in doing so.

My issue about fixing is that it’s a bet. You are betting that your guess on energy prices is going to be better than a company whose business is estimating future energy costs and set the price to come out in the profit side of the deal. By opting for a Fixed Term the company can buy further ahead on the Futures Market and get a better deal. Where it gets a bit muddy is that the company may take a gamble on a smaller margin or perhaps even a small loss to keep you on board and stop you going elsewhere. That improves the Fixed Terms odds.

Given the uncertainty in the energy market at the moment I would probably only fix for a year. One of the known factors is that at the end of this year Ukraine's gas transit contract with Gazprom finishes and they are likely to turn the remainder of gas (not LNG) flowing to Europe off. This is likely to unsettle the gas market, prices go up and those on Fixed Terms gleefully rub their hands together. On the other side gas storage is very high, just over 90%, for this winter, gas supply is also somewhat diversified now and if we have another mild winter gas prices could plummet Q2/Q3 2025. Hooray for the SVT.

Who wants to throw the dice?

Peter

Am I correct in thinking that you need to call for the switch, as the offer won't be visible in the app?

I’ve always likened fixing price to having insurance or not. 
In many cases you’re not obliged to have insurance but it gives you peace of mind, just in case. 

@BPLightlog That is a very good analogy and peace of mind is an important aspect of this. Being able to calculate the risk has its advantages though.

If you are already fixed then you will not be shown an option to change tariff on the app or the browser account portal until 53 days before your current fixed plan end - so the only way to ‘tariff hop’ to a new fix is to contact customer support.

Be aware that if, as an existing customer, you use the ‘Get a Quote’ page to sign up to a new tariff then you may find that you have actually done an account switch to a new account number.
You probably don’t want to do that, see here:

Hey all,

I know this will be a reasonably significant topic over the next few months, so thank you all for sharing your thoughts and insights so far.