Why is my Future Annual Consumption estimate so persistently high?

I’m surprised that this isn’t one of the first things to be checked when there’s an inconsistency involving submitting and retrieving data from an external database.

I was told that there was at some stage a ‘validation failure’, so the third-party data collector concerned was asked to investigate and resolve the error. That was on 1 March … 

I was also pretty surprised myself.

Particularly as I had made two previous complaints to OVO about them having the wrong MSN showing on my account following the failed exchange, the first in July 2023 when they corrected it, then I had to complain again in November 2023 because someone had ‘helpfully’ put it back to the incorrect one.
(So I do in fact know both MSN’s involved, the correct one and the ‘never fitted’ one).

It appears that although OVO had finally got the correct one on my account they hadn’t informed Xoserve of the error.

Silly me for expecting them to do the job properly I suppose.

 A couple of weeks ago, wondering why my FAC started from such a high value, I wrote “2700 kWh is the TDCV for a medium-usage household. A quick glance at my history would have revealed that my usage is consistently less than half of that, so I wonder why the low-usage figure (1800) wasn’t selected, if they couldn’t use the actual consumption figures for my MPAN.”

Since then, Christopher remarked:  ‘… when we know there is an imbalance in the calculations ... There are some occasions where the imbalance is necessary such as a meter exchange as the system would in a way treat this as a “fresh start”.’ 

Yesterday, wondering why my DD calculation can’t be put right, I read in OVO’s own help article that “If you’re new to OVO, [fresh start?] we work out your Direct Debit amount to cover your expected energy use over the next 12 months. We base it on your past year’s energy use if you know it.”

I know it and I knew it down to the nearest 0.001kWh, yet nobody asked and no-one will listen when I point this out. This is gross discrimination against existing loyal customers as opposed to new ones. 

Any comment, @ChristopherS_OVO?

My FAC has been an interesting work of fiction from day 1. 

As, presumably, this is the figure used to determine direct debit payments,  I eventually decided to pay monthly for actual usage. 

Additionally, based on my overall experience with OVO, I would not want OVO to have the access to my bank account that a direct debit permits.

Hey @Firedog,

I don’t have a comment sadly as we’re here to moderate the Forum and create content. I’d suggest if you still aren’t happy with the way the FAC is calculated that you follow the complaint process and raise it as a complaint that can be investigated through the correct channels. You can find our Complaint Handling Statement here, https://bit.ly/3DcsZdj, along with more information on our complaints process here: https://www.ovoenergy.com/feedback.

I’m sorry there isn’t more we can do to help you here! 

Thanks, @ChristopherS_OVO. I wasn’t expecting any sort of authoritative statement, but I suppose I was just a bit peeved to discover that new customers are taken on their word when they say how much they used in the past year while loyal ones like me aren’t. Not to worry. As you’ll see, my FAC is inexorably pursuing its glacial path to a reasonable sum in a few months’ time. I’m just hoping that my chat with Support about my DD a few days ago will keep them off my back until that happens.

Just a wee update. After veering off-course for a week, my FAC is back on a new track. The total has resumed its gentle decline after its eye-catching side-step, while the peak/offpeak split has taken an altered path:
  

With the offpeak FAC is now down to less than a third of what it was in January, it’s still almost three times the meter advance. Any tariff comparison on the basis of these figures is meaningless, and the recommended DD is still £10 a month more than it needs to be.

Hey ho.

Well here we go again - Today my FAC for gas has suddenly rocketed up again.

This afternoon it was showing as 9503 kWh, I submitted a new gas meter reading (nothing unusual just a regular months usage) and this evening the gas FAC has jumped up to 14431 kWh.

So it's now at least 50% higher than it should be. (and in reality it's more like 75% too high).

My actual gas use for the last 12 months to the end of June 2024 was 8270 kWh.

Of course this error has also resulted in my recommended DD amount also rocketing up again, by an extra £27 a month.
So no doubt I’ll be getting an email saying that they will be increasing it even though it’s wrong.

It's getting a bit tiresome having the recommended Direct Debit amount increase itself to ridiculous levels again every 3 months or so, and then having to yet again explain to - read argue with - a support agent about why it’s too high and what it should be,

There are a couple of excuses I can think of that could be used to explain this sudden new FAC spike, but neither one very convincing as anything other than an excuse not to look for and fix the real problem.
Either way it shows they are still getting/using the wrong information in the FAC calculation.

PS. My FAC for electricity is in agreement with my actual electricity use, no issues there.
it’s just my gas FAC that keeps jumping up for no real reason.
I put that down to the electricity being smart metered, so it’s time for me to emulate a smart gas meter again by sending weekly or even daily gas readings to get the gas FAC down again.

Lucky you! Mine is still SNAFU.

While the FAC reported on my Plan page and used to calculate my recommended DD is still falling gently, it looks as if it might meet my actual annual consumption a few days before the anniversary of the meter installation - so much for ‘in three months’ or even ‘within six months’.

A couple of other things are slightly worrying:

• I had a look at some competitive tariffs. The sites that could be persuaded to use ‘data from trusted industry sources’ to find my FAC came up with a figure of 2786 kWh/year. Compare with my actual annual consumption, which to date is 1050 kWh. Consumption in 2023 had been 1180 kWh. Where are these ‘trusted sources’ getting their figures from?
• These sites used a day/night consumption ratio of 58/42, which is the Ofgem standard. My current ratio is of the order of 86/14, so any estimates of annual cost are miles out when comparing E7 tariffs.
• I used to be able to find the current FAC’s day/night figures on the Renewal page. That page is empty for me (“Sorry, there aren’t any plans available for you to renew at the moment”) and has been ever since I switched to a fixed-price tariff more than two months ago, so I’ve little idea what split my FAC is currently based on. I can estimate it from the reliable figures I had stored away before the renewal page packed up, but it’s so far out as to be of no use. Can you see alternative plans?  

The whole Future Annual Consumption / Estimated Annual Cost business was mandated by Ofgem many years ago so customers could make sensible decisions about competing tariffs. I’m sure it’s fine when it works, but it’s intensely frustrating when it doesn’t. I’m even wondering whether the updates OVO is sending to correct my EAC are going to the wrong place like yours were/are. I’ve forgotten - how did you find that out? 

Because you have fixed then you won’t now see any offers on the  renewals page until it’s 50 days or so before your plan end.

And of course if you use the quote webpage instead then, although it says OVO already supplies the property so can give a more accurate quote, it’s still not going to show your actual usage figures.

I think that you should be able to see some split day/night FAC figures in the DD calculator API.
Mine shows each coming months predicted usage figures for both Electricity and Gas in seperate sections, (and then a secion for Bolt-ons), I would imagine it’s similar for your day/night split.
However you’ll only see the figures for the months remaining on your plan. (The months already past just show as 0).
Mine only shows the one combined total figure for predicted yearly, and TBH I haven’t checked. yet, if that a full year or just what’s left to my fix end date.
Note that they are shown in £ and not kWh, but you should be able to reverse calculate it using your tariff rates.

My incorrect gas MSN issue at Xoserve appears to have finally been sorted out now.
(Albeit with the added complication of that ficticious account switch which took a ‘Digital Resolver’ (Ben) to fix).

I was considering pushing now for a gas meter replacement to be tried again, my existing one was already too old over a year ago when they tried but the engineer couldn’t get the new one to connect (not sure if it was a HAN issue, or a WAN/DCC issue, I wasn’t as clued up then as I am now) and that’s when they messed up the meter serial numbers.
I’ll probably now try to get the FAC down again first, it’s already coming down following another submitted meter reading; after just 2-days it’s dropped by 646 kWh to 13785, so still a long way to go.