Why has OVO exaggerated my projected usage estimates after I got a new meter?

I’ve spent some time today attempting to number crunch this manually, but you didn’t mention that you have Economy 7 or what your total Day and Night usage was over the last year. Without this information, I’m afraid I’m unable to punch in more accurate figures into the tools I use and can only go off of a basic single rate tariff. All information in this reply is based on a Unit Rate of 16.83p/kWh Ex. VAT and a Daily Standing Charge of 22.03p/kWh Ex. VAT on the Better Energy tariff that I am currently on, as available when I signed up in September 2020. These figures may vary depending on circumstances. I have not factored in VAT, OVO Beyond, OVO Foundation Donations or anything else beyond the raw rates as stated.

Based on your actual figures of 16,555kWh last year, I make that an average of about 45kWh/Day (rounded down slightly to simplify this breakdown). That works out at an average 1,380kWh/Month, rounded up to the nearest whole number. This also works out as being about an average 1.38mWh/Month. That works out at £2,786.20 a year prior to the Standing Charges which would be another £80.41 for the year. Combined together, I calculate a total of £2,866.61 Ex. VAT for that period. Divide that by 12 and I get £238.88 per month Ex. VAT, but generally this would be rounded up to more like £240 for ease of reference. The VAT on that at a 5% rate works out as being £143.33 for the year making a grand total of £3,009.94 Inc. VAT. That’s also £11.94 a month in VAT which makes for £250.82 a month total Inc. VAT.

However, this is before you factor in any discounts or the split from Economy 7. I cannot calculate these for you as I don’t have the information available. I would suspect your payments were probably about right last year but I cannot guarantee that. 

Having reviewed the information I could gather from you for this year, I calculate that OVO’s algorithms had initially made an additional average allowance of an extra 16kWh/Day on top of your previous figures (making for a “budget” of 62kWh/Day) and 13kWh/Day (making for a “budget” of 59kWh/Day) after the recalculation. This makes sense because your usage is pretty high anyway and what OVO has attempted to do is to give you some leeway in the estimates in order to allow for any fluctuations without affecting your bill. If you still end up only using an average of 45kWh/Day anyway, you will only be billed for the average 45kWh/Day.

Regardless of this, my calculations indicate that a £1,000 balance alone will only get you through 1/3 of the year. In my personal view, it appears that the system is trying to build up a buffer of spare credit over the summer period when your usage is lower to help counteract the winter period and keep your account on track. This is completely normal.

The easiest way to reduce your projected estimates and your bills, is to basically reduce your overall energy usage. Storage Heaters are some of the biggest energy guzzlers out there and are rarely the most cost effective option available. It may be worth considering whether you can upgrade to something more efficient.

It is common for energy suppliers to err on the side of caution and to bias the calculations to be slightly higher than reality in order to allow for various factors, fluctuations and changes in your usage patterns. There are a lot of factors that the system will use when calculating the projections and your current account balance at the time along with your projected account balance are just two of the factors which get fed into the algorithms. No energy supplier worth their salt would fail to factor this stuff in.

If you suspect your meter to be faulty, then a Meter Accuracy Test is an option. If the algorithms OVO uses really are misbehaving, I can assure you that there’s a very, very good chance I would notice that and bug report it almost immediately. To date, I have not needed to do so.

It seems that 5,000kWh remains unaccounted for and I'm unable to get an accurate figure. Please review your comments in this thread and double check the figures provided.

In addition, are you absolutely sure you used 11mWh in a single day? That's an impossibly high amount that goes far beyond the combined daily usage of the entire block of flats that I live in. 

Even without that, I'm still getting £1,315 total. Assigning the missing 5,000kWh to your Night Rate adds a further £588 making £1,903 but even with this, it doesn't match up to your reported £210 a month payments as it averages out at £158. It's only when I assign the 5,000kWh to your Day rate instead that I actually get more reasonable figures. With that, I get £2,304 a year which averages £192 a month. The additional £20 a month on top makes sense as a safety net.

Maybe you are perhaps using more energy than you expected?

I quote: “It seems that 5,000kWh remains unaccounted for.” That is the basis of my complaint. The EAC generated by the system is wrong as confirmed by Customer Services.

I quote: “I do apologise for this, but I can't help you out if you don't provide the correct information.” My figures are correct as confirmed by Complaints department.

Where does 11 MWhr come from?

I quote: “Economy 7 isn't going to be around forever.” Neither am I. It is unlikely that any savings I might make would offset the capital cost in my lifetime.

Apologies. Daytime usage should read 6576 kWh/annum.

You have taken no account of the credit in my account. This should reduce the direct debit amount by approximately £75/month. 

I have shown that I used 16555 kWh between 13/5/20 and 13/5/21. Why then does ‘my plan details’ on my online account now say 21535 kWh, some 30% greater?

Why is the algorithm taking so long? I have submitted meter readings regularly on the 13th of each month for the last two and a quarter years.

How I use the electricity I pay for is of no business of OVO.

I’m really sorry to hear your issues are as yet unresolved, @martinkressman.

If your complaint is now escalated to our Complaints team they will advise you on the next steps and timeframes. If we’re not able to resolve things within 8 weeks you can take this to the Energy Ombudsman for independent review. See a full breakdown of this process here.

Hoping we can reach a resolution for you soon.

I’ve just had my account moved from SSE to OVO (not my choice) and logging into the App for the first time it shows my projected monthly payment needs to be circa. £1100 PER MONTH??? If this is accurate then we will not be able to afford to remain and will need to request Gas and Electricity be cut off.
The wait time on chat is currently 476 minutes, so that’s awesome too!! How can I resolve this quickly as the thought is taking years off me.

Hi @ShepDog,

I’m sorry for the issues you’ve been having.

As we don’t have access to your account I can only speculate as to what might have happened here. 

I’d first check your first bill and opening meter readings.

If it’s not a case of your first bill being incorrect, it may be that your estimated annual consumption is incorrect. As you have a smart meter this should be rectified as your readings start coming through. 

You can check we are in communication with your smart meters online:

If you are having issues getting through to the Support Team on the phone you can contact them through web messenger.

I hope this helps. 

Thanks SpyderDor