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Why are my projected annual costs estimated so high?


Over the last 12 months my total energy costs have been £911. On the "Payments" page of my account you are estimating my annual costs for the next year at £2332.59, and you have set my monthly payments at £175 accordingly. Why are you expecting it to go up by 150% ??
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Best answer by Anonymous 7 June 2017, 13:11

Over the last 12 months my total energy costs have been £911. On the "Payments" page of my account you are estimating my annual costs for the next year at £2332.59, and you have set my monthly payments at £175 accordingly. Why are you expecting it to go up by 150% ??

Thanks for posting, @MikeD

I've changed the title of your topic slightly and added a tag so it's easy for other users to find the answer to your question and get engaged. Thanks for the shout out @Mattj3135 - I've just replied to @MikeD PM.

Just a shout out to anyone else who has the same query: this projected cost figure (and any estimated meter reading we work out) will be based on that property's estimated annual usage. This figure is based on a range of factors, but changes over time based on your meter readings. More info on this here: https://www.ovoenergy.com/ovo-answers/topics/payments-and-statements/payments/how-do-you-work-out-how-much-energy-im-likely-to-use.html. If the projected figure is higher or lower then expected, this annual average might be wrong. This figure is on the second page of your annual statement, so have a look and let us know if you have any concerns.

Thanks,
Emma
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16 replies

I received email saying my new contract would be £1.624 for the coming year, so I decided to check and found a better deal. With my final statement received two days ago, it claimed my expected charge would be £1.233
. Would you please confirm the true expected charge. This morning the new supplier informs me that the cooling of period as ended. I am in a quandary, can you help please. Kind Regards. Mary Ayres
ACCOUNT XXXXXXX ID XXXXXXXXX
Over the last 12 months my total energy costs have been £911. On the "Payments" page of my account you are estimating my annual costs for the next year at £2332.59, and you have set my monthly payments at £175 accordingly. Why are you expecting it to go up by 150% ??

Thanks for posting, @MikeD

I've changed the title of your topic slightly and added a tag so it's easy for other users to find the answer to your question and get engaged. Thanks for the shout out @Mattj3135 - I've just replied to @MikeD PM.

Just a shout out to anyone else who has the same query: this projected cost figure (and any estimated meter reading we work out) will be based on that property's estimated annual usage. This figure is based on a range of factors, but changes over time based on your meter readings. More info on this here: https://www.ovoenergy.com/ovo-answers/topics/payments-and-statements/payments/how-do-you-work-out-how-much-energy-im-likely-to-use.html. If the projected figure is higher or lower then expected, this annual average might be wrong. This figure is on the second page of your annual statement, so have a look and let us know if you have any concerns.

Thanks,
Emma
Userlevel 5
Badge +2
Hi,

Apologies if this has been covered here before, but I'm struggling to understand how the forecasts of what I'm likely to spend differ so much depending on where you look. On my latest statement, I have:

"we think your electricity will cost you £529.31* for the next 12 months" and
"we think your gas will cost you £720.29* for the next 12 months"

So that's a total of roughly £1,250 in the next year. But on the direct debit page it says:

"We think your energy costs this year will be £819.39"

That's a difference of over 50% on the lower figure! Based on my current direct debit, if I believe the statement I'm going to build up a deficit of £230 over the next year. Whereas the direct debit (change payments) page recommends I *reduce* my monthly payment by £15/month.

How can there be such a massive discrepancy? And which is correct?

(Based on spend over the last year I think the higher cost is the more likely but if so then the Change Payments page is irredeemably broken and likely to lead to customers underpaying significantly)


Hey afcone,

Oh wow - that is quite a lot!

I’d really like to look into this for you. I’ve sent you a private message (PM) so that I can get some more details from you to be able to help further.

Lucy
I have been with Ovo since November 2017. My energy cost estimates have consistently been too high. The latest suggests that my annual energy costs will be £2232 when they are very unlikely to be more than £1500. I have a smart meter so my estimates are based on actual consumption. And the renewal estimate is also far too high for the energy use I have recorded since last November. Why are the Ovo estimates so grossly exaggerated?
I have just received my renewal based on 25450 kWh use of gas. My actual use (smart meter) for the past 12 months is 22310, a difference of 14%. This makes a considerable difference in recommended monthly payment, and can also lead to ‘switching ‘taking place unnecessarily, not really in OVO’s best interest. More attention needed at renewal time- not just throwing any old figures out!
Userlevel 7
Badge +2
Hi @MARY2180

Edited to hopefully be a bit helpful and to give some more information.

On your statement we will provide an annual estimated cost figure for the year ahead. This is based on your property’s usage usage and your current plan’s prices.

Whereas your MyOVO renewal options will look at the new tariff prices on offer - see this topic for more info: https://forum.ovoenergy.com/ovo-tariffs-plans-and-renewals-51/renewal-quote-too-high-5498

It’s a shame to hear you’ve switched over this - keep in touch to let us know how it’s going with your new supplier!

I've removed your account details for security.

Darran
I am disappointed with your reply, for there to be £400 difference in quote between new contract estimate, then to state a difference of £400 estimated for a further 12 months on my final bill. If this was a true estimate I would never have changed supplier.
I am very disappointed with OVO. Regards Mary
Userlevel 7
Badge +2
@Jeremy_Hackney did @Nancy_OVO comments help at all? Did you manage to understand this. Please let us know if you need some more help.
Userlevel 7
Badge +2
I have a similar issue, only the other way round. My recommended direct debit payment gives an estimated cost of £1,113, but the figures on my last statement come to just £780.

While I accept that these are just estimates, how can there be two such wildly different figures coming from OVO at the same time?

My own calculations would indicate that the lower figure is likely to prove more accurate, but I cannot select a direct debit amount below OVO's "recommended" amount, which is based on the higher figure.


Just a quick one @afcone - I've moved this query over to another topic on the same thing.

Thanks for posting @Hockers - as Lucy has done, a PM is needed to check things for sure. I'll send this now. In general, these two figures are worked out using different methods. In both these cases something's gone a bit wrong which has caused a large discrepancy in the two figures.

Tim
Userlevel 6
Badge +4
Hi @MikeD welcome to the forum and thanks for your post.

Mm this doesn't sound right and as its account specific, if you send the lovely @Emma_OVO a private message with your name, address, OVO account number & date of birth - Emma will then be able to check things out for you!

Hope this is resolved for you soon
Hi,

Apologies if this has been covered here before, but I'm struggling to understand how the forecasts of what I'm likely to spend differ so much depending on where you look. On my latest statement, I have:

"we think your electricity will cost you £529.31* for the next 12 months" and
"we think your gas will cost you £720.29* for the next 12 months"

So that's a total of roughly £1,250 in the next year. But on the direct debit page it says:

"We think your energy costs this year will be £819.39"

That's a difference of over 50% on the lower figure! Based on my current direct debit, if I believe the statement I'm going to build up a deficit of £230 over the next year. Whereas the direct debit (change payments) page recommends I *reduce* my monthly payment by £15/month.

How can there be such a massive discrepancy? And which is correct?

(Based on spend over the last year I think the higher cost is the more likely but if so then the Change Payments page is irredeemably broken and likely to lead to customers underpaying significantly)
Hi,

Apologies if this has been covered here before, but I'm struggling to understand how the forecasts of what I'm likely to spend differ so much depending on where you look. On my latest statement, I have:

"we think your electricity will cost you £529.31* for the next 12 months" and
"we think your gas will cost you £720.29* for the next 12 months"

So that's a total of roughly £1,250 in the next year. But on the direct debit page it says:

"We think your energy costs this year will be £819.39"

That's a difference of over 50% on the lower figure! Based on my current direct debit, if I believe the statement I'm going to build up a deficit of £230 over the next year. Whereas the direct debit (change payments) page recommends I *reduce* my monthly payment by £15/month.

How can there be such a massive discrepancy? And which is correct?

(Based on spend over the last year I think the higher cost is the more likely but if so then the Change Payments page is irredeemably broken and likely to lead to customers underpaying significantly)


I have a similar issue, only the other way round. My recommended direct debit payment gives an estimated cost of £1,113, but the figures on my last statement come to just £780.

While I accept that these are just estimates, how can there be two such wildly different figures coming from OVO at the same time?

My own calculations would indicate that the lower figure is likely to prove more accurate, but I cannot select a direct debit amount below OVO's "recommended" amount, which is based on the higher figure.
Userlevel 6
Badge +4
Hi @Jeremy_Hackney - there are a number of variables that affect this projection:

- Have you switched onto a new tariff recently? Is it more or less expensive than the previous one?
- Is your current tariff due to expire soon, but you've not selected a new one yet? If so, calculations of usage beyond the end of your existing plan will be based on our current variable pricing.
- Has your usage changed much recently? Although your usage may be low at the minute, your average consumption figures are based on the last 1 to 2 years of usage.
- Do you have a debit balance on your account at the moment? If so, the projection will also factor in recovering this.

Bear in mind that these figures are just a guideline, and if you've got a smart meter, we'll be using these readings to charge you accurately.
Userlevel 6
Badge +4
Hey @Jeremy_Hackney,

Previous usage at the property would indeed influence the projections. The annual consumption figures are linked to the gas and electricity supplies which remain at the property, rather than you as an individual (who may move house).

Glad to hear it's being looked into. We're always happy to have a discussion around this if the figures don't reflect your current usage.

Nancy
Part of the problem seems to be that usage of the previous owners over the last 3 years is used in calculations. We only moved to the property 12 months ago. We are a smaller household and seem to use the electric heating much less than they did. We have also installed a more efficient boiler. Your accounts dept are looking into it for us.

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