Estimating missing smart meter usage data - a model suggestion

  • 5 October 2021
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While I busy myself with a little coding, I offer an image:

The problem of “missing data” and making sensible estimates of meter readings is solved as soon as any remotely sensible model for usage is adopted (even a constant, never-changing rate of consumption works fine, and never gives negative estimated usage).

But this sketch defines what I think is a more than adequate model which would produce excellent estimates, and allows per-customer adjustment.

I’ll be back with real data before long...

BW

 

PS for the more mathematically inclined - the formula in the middle is an expression for the usage. It looks as if it has 5 parameters, but only 4 are real. You get the same value if you double p_0 but halve the other p_i. Expressing things this way is a matter of convenience in applying the model to actual, real data. More soon...


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I thought most companies do that? I certainly remember that E.On had a seasonal projection of your electricity and gas demand. They were using standard curves, so they always assumed a certain gas use during summer, even if you only use gas for heating, but it was close enough. 

Userlevel 6
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I thought most companies do that? I certainly remember that E.On had a seasonal projection of your electricity and gas demand. They were using standard curves, so they always assumed a certain gas use during summer, even if you only use gas for heating, but it was close enough. 


One would hope so, yes. But there are enough tales of woe on here to suggest that, perhaps, Ovo are trying to be too clever by half.

You’re right, a standard curve, even a constant (without those seasonal variations) for heavens’ sake, can give a half sensible projections/estimates that are close enough.

Ah well...

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